If Arlen Specter wins re-election in November and serves out his full term, he will become the first person in Pennsylvania history to serve five terms in the Senate. Boies Penrose is the only other senator to match the four terms Specter has served so far, but Penrose's tenure was in an age before the 17th Amendment allowed for the direct election of senators.
And that is a whole lot different than having to raise and spend $14 million to run television and radio ads and man phone banks from Latrobe to Wilkes Barre and Moyamensing to Erie, which is what Specter had to do to win a tough primary race on Tuesday.
Thirty years in the Senate is a long time, and it is a privilege the voters of Pennsylvania have never granted. The bottom line is that Pennsylvanians simply get bored or tired after awhile and then they make a change.
So, having triumphed over Pat Toomey on Tuesday, the question for Specter is whether he can beat Democrat Joe Hoeffel and history at the same time. But that is not all that is at stake. No, even more than Arlen Specter, the big survivor on Tuesday was George W. Bush.
On a rainy night in late March, Specter was the featured speaker at the annual Crawford County Republican dinner in Meadville. He told the gathering that one reason to vote for him over the conservative Toomey was that he would be able to help Bush win Pennsylvania, a crucial presidential battleground, by "keeping the vote down in Philadelphia." He is right that a Toomey win would have energized Democrats in the state's largest and most Democratic county in ways that Specter, a Philadelphian, does not.
But Tuesday's low turnout in a race that consumed a total of about $18 million has to be a concern for the GOP. Lack of enthusiasm is not a luxury either side can afford this go-round. Malaise can lose you the whole bag of marbles in November, and voters, deep down, don't really love Arlen Specter. On the other hand, the conservative energy that brought Toomey so close may help Bush in November, even though the president endorsed Specter.
But Democrats have their knives out for Specter, because as maddening as he has sometimes been to national Republicans for his moderate -- some say liberal -- ways, Pennsylvania Democrats have long been frustrated at not being able to get him, despite the fact that he always seems so, well, gettable. They love to point to Specter's 1992 re-election in which he was held under 50 percent and could only manage a 2-point victory over Lynn Yeakel. Toss in the fact that Pennsylvania has nearly half a million more registered Democrats than Republicans and you begin to understand why Democrats are salivating.
On Tuesday, Specter won 51 percent to 49 percent, a mere 15,000-vote margin out of more than 1 million cast. The big question is whether Specter can survive another 15-rounder against a Democrat from his part of the state. Surely that will take a big bite out of his own base. His narrow victory and widespread anger at the president may turn hope into courage -- and courage to action.
Republicans, on the other hand, are breathing a sigh of relief and trying to close ranks. Without Specter, Pennsylvania, many believe, would be a lost cause for Bush. The Club for Growth, which helped bankroll the Toomey challenge, issued a statement of disappointment and support.
"Our members are disappointed, yes, but not demoralized by Pat Toomey's narrow defeat," said Stephen Moore, the club's president. "Senator Specter simply had too much grit and too much money to be denied a victory ... . There is no doubt that Senator Specter is far more likely to support tax cuts and other Bush economic policies than Representative Hoeffel, and deserves the support of all Republicans in the November election.
"We have no hesitation in endorsing Arlen Specter for Senate," he added, but the question is whether the Club for Growth did some of the Democrats' dirty work for them -- and if the close results are unlikely to quell the debate inside the Republican Party about what constitutes a loyal Republican.
The moderate Republican Mainstreet Partnership used the close results to mock the conservative Club for Growth.
"Once again, the Club for Growth has been handed a defeat by those who really care about the Republican Party," the partnership said in a statement. "This race exemplifies how intraparty challenges can fracture and damage the GOP. It is time that all Republicans work together to re-elect Specter, President Bush, and increase our majority in the U.S. Congress."
Specter's political durability is legendary. He has been on the public stage for 40 years, and he is always facing down a challenge. Mostly he wins. This time, though, he's up against history.
Terence Samuel is the chief congressional correspondent for U.S. News & World Report. His column about politics appears each week in the online edition of The American Prospect.
