So where do we go from here, after So where do we go from here, after Hillary Clinton's decisive popular vote wins last night in Ohio, Texas, and Rhode Island? A glance at the campaigns' morning memos to reporters gives a clue.
The Clinton team is focusing, naturally, on her ability to win in big, populous states, as well as Ohio's importance to the general election. This is a powerful argument. Ohio, as we all know, is the swingiest of states, and Clinton won it by 10 points last night. That doesn't mean she could replicate that feat against John McCain in the fall, but it does suggest she has a better chance of doing so, as of this date, than Barack Obama.
Clinton advisors Harold Ickes and Mark Penn also write, "[T]he popular vote contest in the Democratic primary is within one-tenth of one percent." Of course, they're counting Michigan and Florida. You better believe the fate of delegates from those states is going to become a major, major controversy within the Democratic Party. If the two states hold June caucuses, Obama could pick up significant support in Michigan, where a full 40 percent of voters declared themselves "uncommitted" rather than choose Clinton. But Florida's demographics just don't go Obama's way.
Obama spokesman Bill Burton sent out a much, much shorter statement, focusing on the mathematics of the delegate race. Here it is:
Tonight was the Clinton campaign's last best chance to make a significant dent in our lead in pledged delegates and they have failed. In our latest projections, we will win the Texas caucus with a double-digit margin and any pledged delegate shift will be absolutely minimal. In fact, Clinton's chances of regaining the delegate lead actually decreased tonight, as the number of delegates remaining dwindles.
This is pretty exciting, fascinating stuff. But the level of drama and uncertainty simply makes me squirm. When will we have a Democratic nominee?
--Dana Goldstein
