by Nicholas Beaudrot Courtesy of Alan Abramowitz, this graph of ten-day polling averages, rather than the three day averages that Gallup uses, shows you just how little the Presidential race has shifted over the last two months. Barack Obama has maintained a steady, modest lead over the course of the election. It's possible there was a slight uptick surrounding Obama's trip to Europe, but if there was it didn't last long enough to force a significant change in the polls. Now, it's possible that Abramowitz's end points cause the race to look a bit more stable than it is; maybe if you take different ten-day slices, you will end up with some time periods where Obama is ahead by five, and others where he's only ahead by two. But it's unlikely; absent convincing evidence, it's safe to assume that on any given day a poll will show Obama with a modest lead, and state polling will show him winning the Kerry states plus Iowa and New Mexico, ahead by a nose in Colorado, Ohio, and perhaps Virginia, and on the cusp of contention in a number of other light red states.
