If you, rightly, count Sen. Joe Lieberman as a half-Republican, there are only 5.5 Republican members of Congress left among the 34 who represent the six New England states: Maine's two female senators; New Hampshire's two male senators; the sole GOP House member who survived 2006, Connecticut Rep. Chris Shays; and you know who.
As Rothenberg Report's Nathan Gonzales points out, one of the four senators looks all but doomed: NH's John Sununu. As Gonzales points out, there is an eerie similarity to the poll tracking for the Sununu-Jeanne Shaheen matchup and last cycle's Pennsylvania race between another Republican who found himself increasingly out of step with the political-partisan preferences of the state he represented: Pennsylvania's Rick Santorum. "Through this point last cycle, two-dozen polls showed exactly the same thing; Santorum trailed Casey by an average of 11 points and the incumbent failed to top 43 percent in the ballot test," notes Gonzales. "Indications are that Sununu will suffer the same fate as Santorum."
The clearing out of moderate Republicans from the Rust Belt is strikingly similar to what Republicans did to moderate Democrats in the South. But with two key differences: It took longer for Democrats to get around to blueing the Northeast and Midwest, a project they could have commenced much sooner; but, second, now that that this conversion is underway it is moving along quite speedily.
--Tom Schaller
