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There's primaries being held in Ohio, Texas, Rhode Island and Vermont today -- in case you didn't know. The two large states are considered must-wins for Senator Hillary Clinton to stave off Senator Barack Obama's momentum (he has won the last 11 primaries consecutively). Let's evaluate the most relevant information related to the latest (and possibly final) primary battle of the season:
- In Ohio, Hillary Clinton has maintained her lead over Barack Obama, although one polling outfit places her in a tie with the Illinois senator. The conventional wisdom predicts that Clinton will win, although Obama pulling ahead is not an impossibility. Severe weather is expected to hit northern Ohio today, but the effect it will have on primary voters is unknown. (Here in D.C., turnout was strong despite freezing rain and the ubiquitous sight of people slipping and falling on the icy streets.) On the Republican side, John McCain is expected to win by a wide margin.
- In Texas the Democratic race is in greater flux. Neither candidate holds a consistent (or wide) lead and the sheer complexity of the way Texas votes and allocates delegates could mean a decisive verdict will be late coming. There is no favorite, although the momentum appears to be with Obama (he has collapsed Clinton's once-double-digits lead in the Lone Star state). John McCain is expected to win decisively there as well, despite a lukewarm endorsement from Sen. John Cornyn.
- Speaking of McCain, it should be noted that if he picks up just 177 more delegates today (out of 256 being awarded), he will have reached the 1,191 delegates necessary to officially secure his party's nomination.
- Speaking of delegates, very little will change on the Democratic side of the race after today's contests. Hillary Clinton would need to win by margins greater than any recent poll predicts in order to catch up to Obama's pledged delegate lead. Mathematically, it is possible for Clinton, through attrition, to catch up to Obama, but that scenario requires everything to break her way. Numbers don't lie, which has prompted calls for Clinton drop out should she lose today. But increasingly, the only way she could actually get the 2,024 votes necessary to secure her party's nomination would be to take the lion's share of superdelegates. There are two schools of thought on this. The first (see Sullivan, Andrew) says that will take this fight all the way to the convention and use whatever tactics are necessary to win with a superdelegate lead. The second says this is crazy; the uncommitted (or even the committed) superdelegates are not going to vote against the candidate with the clear pledged delegate lead and tear the Democratic party in two. Ultimately, the school you side with depends on your opinion of Clinton's motivations and disposition.
- As for Rhode Island and Vermont, Clinton appears poised to win the former, Obama the latter. McCain is all but certain to win both.
- Finally, I would be remiss not to note that amongst all this presidential hoopla, a certain presidential also-ran in Cleveland is facing the toughest primary fight of his 12-year congressional career. Dennis Kucinich faces no less than three challengers on the ballot today, although I suspect the power of incumbency, coupled with the crowded field, will be enough to offset the effects of neglecting your House seat to pursue long shot presidential candidacies.
--Mori Dinauer
