Consensus around DC seems to be that John McCain would love to pick his friend Joe Lieberman, but won't. It's possible that that consensus, built atop the same ace reporting that gave us vice presidents Evan Bayh and Chet Edwards, will prove correct. But I'm betting against it.For better or worse, a Lieberman pick makes a whole lot of sense for John McCain. Start with the dynamics of this election: 2004 might have been a mobilization game where each side tried to amp up its half and bring out that last microslice of the electorate which would push them into 50.1% territory. For the Republicans, however, 2008 can't be mobilization. Their half is too small. Their brand is too damaged. And they recognized that when they chose John McCain -- who's not a base mobilizing evangelical conservative anyway -- as their nominee. For awhile, it looked possible that McCain could run against Obama much as Bush Sr. ran against Dukakis. Attack, while Dukakis apathetically watched his image warp and darken in the minds of the voters. As of this week, it's clear that that won't be the nature of this race. Obama has more money, proved himself able to launch a brutal assault, and just chose the aggressive chairman of McCain's own foreign policy committee to be his vice president. The fundamentals -- the economy, the right track/wrong track numbers, the cash flow, Bush -- are against McCain. His campaign can try and make this into an air war, and they may even win it, but it's not a safe bet. SURE-TO-BE-WRONG-PREDICTION: WHY MCCAIN WILL CHOOSE LIEBERMAN.
Consensus around DC seems to be that John McCain would love to pick his friend Joe Lieberman, but won't. It's possible that that consensus, built atop the same ace reporting that gave us vice presidents Evan Bayh and Chet Edwards, will prove correct. But I'm betting against it.For better or worse, a Lieberman pick makes a whole lot of sense for John McCain. Start with the dynamics of this election: 2004 might have been a mobilization game where each side tried to amp up its half and bring out that last microslice of the electorate which would push them into 50.1% territory. For the Republicans, however, 2008 can't be mobilization. Their half is too small. Their brand is too damaged. And they recognized that when they chose John McCain -- who's not a base mobilizing evangelical conservative anyway -- as their nominee. For awhile, it looked possible that McCain could run against Obama much as Bush Sr. ran against Dukakis. Attack, while Dukakis apathetically watched his image warp and darken in the minds of the voters. As of this week, it's clear that that won't be the nature of this race. Obama has more money, proved himself able to launch a brutal assault, and just chose the aggressive chairman of McCain's own foreign policy committee to be his vice president. The fundamentals -- the economy, the right track/wrong track numbers, the cash flow, Bush -- are against McCain. His campaign can try and make this into an air war, and they may even win it, but it's not a safe bet. 
