Posted by Nicholas Beaudrot of Electoral Math
Since Ezra will be at shul all day, I guess it makes sense for we goyim to pinch hit; though I'm wishing I wasn't such a putz that it took me until 4pm pacific to realize that would be a good idea. Ay gevalt ...
... In any event, the continuing downward spiral of the President's job approval, coupled with a series of optimistic looking generic congressional ballot polls, along the Hacker & Pierson guest blogging stint at the Washington Monthly, has all generated a fresh round of questions about the landscape for the 2006 midterm elections. Big Media Matt is pessimistic, while Kevin Drum thinks that Madison's Revenge will lead to a GOP crackup. Chris Bowers wants to expand the playing field, and cautions everyone not to read too much into polls taken 13 months before The Only Poll That Matters.
Bowers is right to express cautious optimism, but I think he's being a bit too cautious. It's true that in June of 2004, Democrats held similar advantages in the polls, but at that time they were engaged in a full-court PR campaign against the Republican party. Today, there isn't such a large effort to trash the GOP on a day-in, day-out basis. The Cassandras have simply been too cowed by the Texas re-redistricting; but outside of that maneuver Democrats actually gained seats last election cyle. A clear victory would still change the hands of the gavel-holder. I'll have some numbers to back this up this weekend.
