In 1976, the Syrian army rolled into Lebanon to quash what was then a yearlong civil war. Now, 29 years later, the Syrians say they will roll the last of their army and intelligence personnel out of Lebanon by April 26.
“It's a categorical total withdrawal,” says Imad Moustapha, Syria's ambassador to the United States. “We are not leaving a single Syrian soldier in Lebanon.”
The decision to withdraw from Lebanon came after strong international pressure was placed on Syria following the February 14 assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri. The killing sparked anti-Syrian protests in the streets of Beirut.
During their presence, the Syrians became the dominant political force in Lebanon. Working behind the scenes, they determined the composition of successive postwar Lebanese governments; selected three presidents; settled disputes between squabbling political leaders; and provided material and political support to Hezbollah and other armed groups fighting Israel's occupation of southern Lebanon.
In the eyes of many Lebanese, this influence was built on corruption, fear, and intimidation, which is why many were quick to blame Syria for Hariri's murder.
Yet Syria's ubiquitous power also brought a degree of predictability to Lebanon's complex, sectarian political system; Syria's withdrawal leaves many uncertainties about Lebanon's future.
These have been dizzying times for Lebanon. A series of bombs exploded in Christian neighborhoods around the country. A UN report into Hariri's assassination revealed gross incompetence by Lebanese security services in their handling of the investigation and strong indications of a cover up.
For nearly two months, a weak pro-Syrian Lebanese Prime Minister, Omar Karami, tried but failed to draw an emboldened opposition into a “national unity government.” Karami stepped down on April 13 and was replaced by Najib Mikati, a former transport minister considered a moderate despite his close ties with Syria. Mikati's new government is largely technocratic in nature. Its task will be to prepare for Parliamentary elections in late May.
Strengthened by popular outrage over Hariri's death, the opposition is optimistic about its prospects at the polls. But the new political realities in Lebanon are creating tensions that, some fear, could ultimately prove problematic.
For one, Syria and its political allies are likely to continue wielding influence in Lebanon. A recent poll by Zogby International/Information International shows a sizable minority of Lebanese, 37 percent, say they support a Syrian roll in Lebanon, versus 61 percent who say they do not.
“Syria will continue to cast a very long shadow over Lebanon even after disengagement,” says Steven Heydemann, director of Georgetown University's Center on Democracy and the Third Sector.
At the same time, the opposition is fractious, drawn together by the desire for an international investigation of Hariri's killing and a demand for the full Syrian withdrawal from Lebanon but little else, according to As`ad AbuKhalil, a Lebanese-born political science professor at California State University, Stanislaus.
“Now that these two goals have been accomplished,” says AbuKhalil, “the cracks in the opposition ranks are becoming more pronounced.”
The future of Hezbollah has become a central source of contention. A political party and paramilitary organization, Hezbollah has enormous support among the country's Shia plurality. An ally of Syria, Hezbollah drove Israeli forces out of southern Lebanon in 2000 and continues to fight Israel in a small patch of disputed territory called the Sheba Farms.
When asked in the Zogby International/Information International poll if Hezbollah should be disarmed, 79 percent of Shias said they disagree compared with 31 percent of Sunnis and 8 percent of Maronite Christians.
“Dialogue must begin between the Lebanese government and Hezbollah,”says Michael Young, a Lebanese analyst and opposition supporter. “We must come to an agreement on this. We cannot leave Hezbollah in [control of] southern Lebanon.”
Christian opposition figures, including former Lebanese president Amin Gemayel, say that debate over the disarmament of Hezbollah's military wing should begin promptly after parliamentary elections.
But this position runs counter to that of other Lebanese, including Druze leader Walid Junblatt, the most prominent opposition figure and a former Syrian ally. Junblatt says talk of disarmament should be delayed until Israel withdraws from the Sheba Farms.
Many Lebanese, including Young, are optimistic that these differences can be resolved through democratic debate in a newly elected parliament. Georgetown's Heydemann says that Hezbollah seems to be adjusting to the new realities in Lebanon on its own.
“I think what we are much more likely to see is the increasing prominence of the political role of Hezbollah and the gradual receding of the military wing,” he says.
But others are less optimistic. Professor AbuKhalil envisions a situation similar to Iraq: not a full-scale civil war but a shadowy conflict between competing factions involving car bombs and random acts of violence.
There are reasons for hope, says Syrian-born Najib Ghadbian, assistant professor of political science at the University of Arkansas.
“Lebanon could really reach democracy and maintain that delicate sectarian balance in the country,” he says. “However, things could go wrong.”
Robert Tuttle is a freelance writer currently residing in New York. He has lived for seven years in Lebanon, Syria, and Egypt.
