DID SYRIA DO IT? Never loath to leap to conclusions without evidence, the Wall Street Journal editorial page has already decided that Syria killed Pierre Gemayel, Jr. last week. The Journal is pushing back against the expected Baker-Hamilton proposal of talks between the United States and Syria, which seem to meet with widespread approval everywhere but the Bush administration. It's possible that Syria killed Gemayel, but given Lebanon's byzantine complexity, I don't think it's prudent to leap to any conclusions. See Josh Landis for more on that.
I believe that talks with Syria are a good idea -- unless we come to a modus vivendi in the region, they will keep making trouble for us -- but only after Serge Brammertz, the UN investigator looking into the assassination of Rafiq al-Hariri, assembles more proof of Syrian complicity. His next report is due out in mid-December, around the same time the Iraqi Study Group will release its own findings. Syria is clearly uncomfortable about Brammertz's investigation and enthusiastic about Baker-Hamilton's outreach. They'd want to be let off the hook in Lebanon as part of any deal with the United States, in exchange for help in Iraq and Palestine. Assuming Brammertz has the goods on Syria for the Hariri and other murders (including Gemayel), we'll have more leverage if we wait. I just hope Lebanon doesn't fall apart before then.
--Blake Hounshell
