Kenneth Baer, TAP Online Columnist
Popular Vote: Kerry 50.5%, Bush 48%
Electoral Votes: Kerry 299; Bush 239
Prez on 11/3?: We will have both a president and president-elect.
Reason: In addition to the dwindling efficacy of phone polling (which made this seem tighter), there are three variables that mattered: 1) unbelievably high voter registration; 2) unusually high turnout; 3) people had the patience and the system had the capacity to process all these votes.
Jeffrey Dubner, Associate Online Editor
Popular Vote: Kerry 49.5%, Bush 49%
Electoral Votes: Bush 286, Kerry 252
Prez on 11/3?: No. Ohio and Florida take their sweet time.
Reason: The 6th Circuit rules in favor of Election Day challenges late Monday night. Over 200,000 votes wind up on provisional ballots in Ohio; the reported tally that night shows Bush ahead, and Secretary of State Ken Blackwell refuses to count the provisionals until litigation has been resolved. As a result, Bush becomes the presumptive winner. Florida can't be painted red until the resolution of several suits over polling places closing with voters still in line. A couple other states are tight enough to mandate recounts, but none are decisive. (If I'm wrong about the 6th Circuit, Kerry takes Ohio and might even win cleanly.)
Mark Goldberg, Writing Fellow
Popular Vote: Kerry 52%, Bush 46%
Electoral Votes: Kerry 272, Bush 266
Prez on 11/3?: Yes
Reason: Bush earns 18 percent of the African American vote, helping him win Florida; Kerry takes Ohio and Pennsylvania. New Hampshire's four electoral votes prove to be decisive. In the closest margin of victory of any state, Kerry wins New Hampshire by fewer than 500 votes.
Robert Kuttner, Co-editor
Popular Vote: Kerry 48.1%, Bush 46.3%
Electoral Votes: Bush 238, Kerry 236
Prez on 11/3?: No. Sixty-four electoral votes and 4.7 percent of the popular vote are contested.
Harold Meyerson, Editor-at-Large
Popular Vote: Kerry 51.8%, Bush 47.2%
Electoral Votes: Kerry 316, Bush 222
Prez on 11/3?: Yes
Reason: I'm a big believer that when most else is equal, the candidate with the decisively better ground game wins. This year, most else is equal. And in virtually every battleground state, Kerry's ground game -- his own and the “527s” -- is bigger and better than Bush's. I also believe that “Molyneux's Rule” is likely to hold true in Tuesday's election. Kerry holds the Gore states and adds Florida, Ohio, Nevada, and New Hampshire; Nevada and Missouri hold the closest margins on each side. These figures are plausible only if turnout soars to roughly 130 million. But that, I believe, is what will happen on Tuesday.
Terence Samuel, TAP Online Columnist
Popular Vote: Kerry 51%, Bush 48%
Electoral Votes: Kerry 284, Bush 254
Prez on 11/3?: Yes.
Reason: Bush ekes out a win in Florida but loses Ohio and Colorado, while Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Iowa remain in the D column.
Paul Starr, Co-editor
Popular Vote: Bush 49.4%, Kerry 49%
Electoral Votes: Kerry 294, Bush 244
Prez on 11/3?: No; uncertainties over provisional and absentee ballots keep outcome suspended.
Reason: High turnout pushes Kerry over the top in key battleground states, while Bush piles up margin in red states.
Michael Tomasky, Executive Editor
Popular Vote: Kerry 49.7%, Bush 47.9%
Electoral Votes: Kerry 279, Bush 259
Prez on 11/3?: Not quite. Rove will make noise about challenges; but by November 8, G.H.W.B. (a k a "higher authority") will call son and instruct him to concede.
Reason: Turnout, plus no discernible movement toward Bush post-Osama tape.
Sarah Wildman, Senior Correspondent
Popular Vote: Kerry 49.1%, Bush 48%
Electoral Votes: Kerry 272, Bush 266
Prez on 11/3?: No.
Reason: By midnight, November 2, we will believe it to be a tentative 272-266 Kerry victory, but that will shift as November 3 dawns. The results are contested in Ohio, Florida, Iowa, Hawaii, and Nevada, with both parties jumping into litigation. Kerry does win Wisconsin and Pennsylvania (fairly) decisively.
Matthew Yglesias, Staff Writer
Popular Vote: Bush 49.3, Kerry 49.1
Electoral Votes: Bush 269, Kerry 269
Pres on 11/3?: No. Colorado-related litigation required before a 5-4 decision sends the election to the House where Bush wins.
Reason: Al Qaqaa is a national media obsession, but the local papers read by undecided voters only cover it in generic "he-said, she-said" wire accounts of the campaign. Democrats are so busy winning Ohio that they neglect to cover their flank in the Upper Midwest. Many recriminations follow. Mark Penn's theory that "cheese-producing dads" in Wisconsin were turned off by Kerry's Francophilia and obvious disdain for good American cheese becomes the dominant trope in media coverage, but liberal favorite What's The Matter With Minnesota? (author TBD) argues that, in fact, DLC-led support for welfare reform has cost the Democrats the support of working-class whites. Nader voters in the Madison area discover, to their chagrin, that the Military Selective Service Act of 1980 has eliminated student deferments.
