Justin Fox argues that taxes are going to go up in the next couple of years because of entitlement spending. Contrast that with McCain's view, often implicit, that they can go down because of entitlement cuts (which he calls "reform."). And he's right, if you could massively cut entitlements, spending would go down. But that's the black box at the center of the McCain agenda: Entitlement reform. When asked about it, he professes relative equanimity to the end result, and swears hell hand it over to a bipartisan congressional commission. But no congressional commission is going to cut Medicare in order to fund tax cuts. And no conceivable Congress would pass such a recommendation. So the question then becomes, in the absence of entitlement reform, what does McCain think we should do? Raise taxes? And if not, what will he do? The funny thing about the McCain campaign is that it's known for giving the press more access than any other campaign in history, but there are all sorts of crucial, fundamental questions like this, and no one has ever forced him to answer them. All we get is airy promises that he'll encourage Congress to "act in a bipartisan way to extend [Medicare's] solvency for twenty-five years without increasing taxes and raising premiums only for upper income seniors. Their success [will encourage] a group of congressional leaders from both parties to work with my administration to fix Social Security as well, without reducing benefits to those near retirement." Extending solvency without raising taxes means -- guess what!? -- cutting benefits! Even if you can slow the growth of health spending you can't make that magic trick work without cuts. And preserving Social Security benefits for those near retirement means -- guess what!? -- cutting it for those retiring down the road! Unpopular! McCain can no more enact this vision then he can make Skittles rain from the sky. But if he can't enact this vision, then the numbers in his agenda don't add up. And we'll have to, as Fox says, raise taxes. Too bad McCain won't give "his friends" any straight talk on that.
