Brendan Nyhan did a little research, and argues that Tea Party candidates aren't that crazy -- in fact, they're often conventional candidates. Various respondents suggests that this means the Tea Partiers are pragmatic. But I beg to differ -- The Tea Party isn't pragamatic. It's just a bunch of Republicans. As Nyhan writes, "Despite the influence of the Tea Party movement, the GOP actually has more House candidates who have previously held elected office running for open seats than the Democrats do. ... The Tea Party movement has affiliated itself with a surprising number of non-amateur politicians in competitive and open-seat races." Talk about that anti-establishment fervor!
There are two stories that people tell about the Tea Party. One is that they're breaking with with both parties over fiscal irresponsibility to get back to the basics. The other is that they're a convenient way for Republicans to leverage populist anger and get back into power without really changing their habits. Dave Weigel points out that the Tea Party provides a good opportunity for conventional Republicans, like Marco Rubio or Ken Buck, to gain some new luster.The more you look at what's happening on the ground, the more the latter story seems the case. If the Tea Party were really about shaking free of the bad fiscal legacy of both parties, it would be honestly presenting itself as a fresh face, rather than being co-opted by the conservative establishment.
On the broader question of whether the Tea Party has hurt the GOP politically, I think you have to wait and see. It's unquestionable, in my mind, that the Tea Party has made it harder for Republicans to capture the Senate by promoting unconventional candidates in places like Delaware, Nevada, Colorado, Alaska, and Connecticut -- all places where Republicans had much better chances before the primaries than after. For the House and gubernatorial races, you have to balance the amount of money its grassroots donors have raised and the enthusiasm they've created on the right versus the left's leveraging of the same for the same purposes. Without the Tea Party, Republicans would likely still have an enthusiasm advantage, but perhaps lack some of the unexpected externalities that came with it.
-- Tim Fernholz
