Great Falls, MT -- On Tuesday night in the Great Falls Heritage Inn, the convention room was packed with Jon Tester supporters and the media. A television screen fifteen feet high dominated the room. A podium waited, empty. There was a buffet and a wet bar. Governor Brian Schweitzer and Jag, his border collie, worked the room. (“Are pets allowed?” someone foolishly asked.) Senator Max Baucus was there, too. Great Falls lies on the edge of the eastern plains, near the geographical center of the state. It's a working-class and military town, and its Tester supporters, many associated with unions, were loud and very friendly. Two large nets full of red, white, and blue balloons hung suspended over the stage. The balloons, like the crowd, would remain hanging in suspense for a good while longer.
There were a number of crucial issues tied into the Senate race between Tester and three-term Republican incumbent Conrad Burns. First, with polls deadlocked heading into Election Day, most thought the race would hinge on the respective parties' get-out-the-vote efforts. This, then, would constitute a major test of DNC chair Howard Dean's 50-state strategy -- the funding of state Democratic organizations across the country, even in rural red states like Montana. The Democratic activists on the ground would have to face off against the dreaded GOP 72-hour GOTV efforts, which many say had been in clear force most recently for Lincoln Chaffee's Rhode Island Republican primary victory.
The Montana Senate race was also a clear test of the idea that new Democratic resurgence was taking place in the interior West. A Tester victory, especially if it helped tip the Senate into Democratic control, would contribute to making the West the new battleground for political control of the country. A Tester win would also likely make Denver the choice for the party's 2008 national convention and perhaps a prominent Westerner a candidate for the second -- or even first? Schweitzer? Richardson? -- spot on the presidential ticket.
And lastly, a Tester victory in Montana would, outside of a Ned Lamont triumph in Connecticut, be the strongest indication yet that a progressive grass- and netroots movement could actually propel a candidate into a federal-level office. Tester was supposed to be the also-ran in the primary, outspent substantially by the DC leadership favorite John Morrison, but he won the election by twenty-five points in no small part because of the publicity that more than $100,000 in on-line donations brought his campaign. And grassroots organizations urged on by blogs proved to be crucial this past Tuesday.
And then there was the “Schweitzer effect” -- could the immensely popular governor sweep a Democratic candidate into a Republican-held seat in a red state? Schweitzer was doing his best in Great Falls, rallying the crowd as the election results trickled in. “Don't feel so bad for old Conrad Burns,” he said from the podium, “he'll go back to D.C. anyway. He's got some friends there. He'll be buying votes instead of selling them.” The crowd roared. Asking for patience, the governor offered to write excuse notes from classes the next day for any students still waiting for the results, and after speaking he did just that, wading through a cluster of high-school students holding notepads for him to sign.
At one in the morning, with only about a third of the crowd still there -- but all of the media -- the party was moved to the bar so the union workers could disassemble the stage and lights and set up for the next day's event. It was in the bar that the few remaining supporters received a double-dose of bad news: first, Yellowstone county needed to recount its votes and the race wouldn't be decided for another four to six hours; second, it was last call.
By the next morning Tester's lead wobbled between 1,500 and 4,000 votes. By mid-morning, most news organizations projected him as the winner, and he declared victory. Montana and Virginia provided the final Senate seats the Democratic Party needed to gain control of both bodies of Congress.
Now that the results are in, a look at the base of Tester's support is fascinating. As Montana blogger Matt Singer noted, the Big Sandy farmer was roundly defeated in the rural counties and lost the senior vote by a slim margin -- two demographics that, in a usual Montana election, would spell doom for the candidate who lost them. Instead, Tester won on the strength of turnout in Montana's urban areas, notably left-leaning Missoula county, which had upward of 70 percent turnout and went 65 percent for the Democratic candidate. In short, Jon Tester won the race by rallying his base: young voters and urban progressives. So much for moderates and conservatives deciding the 2006 election. While few Montana candidates should plan all future campaigns around this strategy, it's certainly intriguing to note that a Democratic candidate managed to bank on a liberal electorate to carry a rural state -- and succeeded.
Jay Stevens is the founder and main contributor to 4&20 blackbirds, a progressive Montana blog on national, state, and local politics and culture. He lives with his family in Missoula, Montana. A graduate of the University of Montana's writing program, Jay also writes poetry and fiction, works in computer software, and is a left-leaning political activist.
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