by Nicholas Beaudrot of Electoral Math
Ted Stevens (R-AK) gets bogged down in the muck. I'll say it again: folks need to start from the premise the Dems have a shot at really running the table. Sure, Andrew Rice isn't really likely to win in Oklahoma, but at this point really any Republican with any question marks is within reach, and the various second and third tier candidates (Rice, Slattery, Noriega, Figures, Larocco, Allen, Merkley/Novick, Franken) need to be able to run credible campaigns in the event that their opponents implode. With Shaheen running in NH, and perhaps Bob Kerrey in NE, there are already three seats where Democrats are favored (VA, CO, NH) and four more where they have at least an even chance (NE, OR, ME, MN). I'm pretty sure if you were to go back to Labor Day 2005, you wouldn't see anyone nearly this optimistic.
So if Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich wants a seat on the Appropriations commitee and a promise to build the North Slope natural gas pipeline (something that's different from ANWR drilling, and that Gore and Kerry both supported), and he's got a puncher's chance at taking out a muck-covered Stevens, this is really the cycle to promise him whatever he wants.
Footnote: why isn't there an A-list challenger to Liddy Dole? Are North Carolina Dems assuming that Hillary Clinton will be on the ticket and destroy the chances of downticket Southernors?
