by Nicholas Beaudrot of Electoral Math
It wasn't a great week for the maximalist expansion crowd. To the delight of Atrios, Cosmic Bob Kerrey announced he wouldn't run for the open seat in Nebraska, leaving Big City Mayor (see below) Mike Fahey and Scott Kleeb as the two most likely candidates. In North Carolina, Grier Martin, who's got a young kid at home, has taken a pass in the race against Liddy Dole (R-NC).
But there are a few bright spots out on the horizon. In the New Mexico race, the Draft Udall movement is gaining steam which is good because the current candidate, Marty Chavez, likes kicking the base. Chavez is also the Big City Mayor, which violates Beaudrot's first rule of politics: never run the Big City Mayor for statewide office, unless said mayor already has a track record of improving the city's image in the eyes of suburban or rural voters (see Giuliani, O'Malley, Hickenlooper, Rendell). In Georgia, Max Cleland holds that m#*(&!*(%(ing c(*(*!&%(*!#er Saxby Chambliss to a 36-24 lead in a rather bizarre poll. In Kentucky, a variety of Dems are within striking distance of Mitch McConnell. And now that Martin is out, state Senator Kay Hagan is reconsidering; she'd still be a solid candidate, if not the recruiting coup that Martin would be.
The amazing thing about this cycle is that there is a scenario under which any GOP seat might endu p in play. Jeff Sessions (R-AL) could get caught in the muck surrounding the Siegelman case. What if Lindsay Graham's (R-SC) might hamper him. Pat Roberts' (R-KS) continued stonewalling on the Senate Intelligence committee could become an issue. The anti-choice right might get tired of Lamar! Alexander (R-TN). Sure, it's unlikely that the stars will align in every single race, but surely between now and, say, August of 2008, at least some of the races that today appear uncompetitive will suddenly become close. And Dems really ought to be prepared with viable candidates in every race, just in case there's another 1980 style wave.
