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If it's Tuesday, it's Think Tank Round-Up. Today we've got a double-whammy of data on sin taxes and health care, a preview of the Iranian elections, concerns about the war in Iraq and a new analysis of the conflicts in Afghanistan and Pakistan.
- Taxing Sin to Pay for Health. In a series of papers exploring ways Congress could pay for health care reform, the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities proposes raising traditional "sin taxes" on alcohol and establishing a new tax on high-sugar soft drinks. Because alcohol taxes are not indexed to inflation, their real value has eroded by 37 percent since 1991. CBPP argues that because alcohol abuse imposes heavy economic and health costs, reversing the decline in taxes on alcohol would have the two-fold benefit of discouraging excessive drinking and raising funds for universal health-care coverage. Likewise, a tax on high-sugar soft drinks: CBPP cites mounting evidence that consumption of sugary drinks contributes significantly to obesity, particularly in children, and raises the nation’s total health-care costs. They predict a 10 percent price increase would cut consumption by 7.8 percent, and a penny-per-ounce tax would raise roughly $10 billion a year. -- MD
- Iran at the Polls: A pre-election report from the Brookings Institution outlines the state of play in Iranian politics before the Islamic Republic's June 12 presidential elections. Everyone's favorite incumbent, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, faces several challenges, including the growing demand for reform from many Iranian voters and disquiet even among traditional conservatives over Ahmadinejad's aggressive international rhetoric. His strongest opponent, Mir Husayn Musavi, led the country as prime minister during the Iraq-Iran war and "appears to have energized many Iranians who had become wholly disengaged from politics in recent years." Four things to watch for: turnout in big cities; run-offs if no candidate secures a majority; challenges for reformers once in office; and the U.S. response's impact on domestic politics." -- CKS
- Fractured Peace. Some days, it seems as if Americans have all but forgotten about our one-time quagmire in the Middle East. But that hasn’t stopped the Council on Foreign Relations from publishing a report by Stephen Biddle that outlines how the progress achieved in Iraq could be negated and argues for a more cautious withdrawal of American forces. The memo points out the unstable nature of decentralized cease-fires, which could allow a would-be dictator to exploit disorganized factions and eliminate political rivals under the guise of the rule of law. -- AS
- Nuts and bolts in Afghanistan and Pakistan. The leading lights at the Center for a New American Security -- Andrew Exum, Nathaniel Fick, Ahmed Humayun, and David J. Kilcullen -- have put together a report assessing how the United States can regain momentum in Afghanistan and Pakistan during the next year. In Afghanistan, the authors urge a deeper focus on civilian protection and counterinsurgency tactics, coupled with a "civilian surge" to increase the legitimacy of the Afghan government. Meanwhile, they urge a moratorium on drone strikes in Pakistan, which can engender civilian resentment, and focus on providing aid to Pakistan's domestic police force rather than the various military and intelligence authorities. -- TF
-- TAP Staff
