By Neil the Ethical Werewolf
Brother Nicholas has been arguing that Democrats should feel confident about their ability to win a lot of Senate seats in 2008, and he's entirely right. At this early point, we're favored to take at least three seats from the Republicans (CO, NH, VA) and maybe a fourth (NE). The silver lining behind Democratic capitulation on Iraq, to talk like a mathematician, is that it reduces the 2008 election to a problem previously solved. 2006 showed us that we can destroy the GOP in an election where public anger about the continuing Iraq War is the big issue, and in 2008 we'll be replaying that scenario with 7 more GOP Senators up for re-election than last time.
Zooming out a little bit, the leadership situation looks promising. After leading the effort that won us six seats in 2006, Chuck Schumer is coming back with his top-notch recruitment, fundraising, and cash allocation skills. The first two of those have already been on display -- the DSCC is winning the fundraising battle by a lot, and we've got our dream candidates in Virginia and New Hampshire. (I hear that before Schumer, powerful but safe incumbents would often wrangle funds out of DSCC chairmen, and it's good to see the end of that.) On the other hand, I don't know if I'm allowed to hope that Karl Rove will be advising the GOP on last-minute spending again. It's the one area in which he's an absolute idiot. He had the GOP throw money into their big losses in New Jersey, Maryland, and Michigan, even as they lost Montana and Virginia by the slimmest margins.
