David Axe highlights one bit of the new China military capabilities report; the Chinese continue to invest in developing a capacity to hit aircraft carriers with ballistic missiles. To be clear, this could portend a significant degradation of the ability of the United States to intervene usefully in a China-Taiwan conflict. Cold War thought on the killing of aircraft carriers focused on submarine and cruise missile attacks. Carrier defenses, consequently, focused on keeping subs away from the aircraft carriers and on being able to either shoot down incoming missiles or destroy enemy ships and aircraft before the missiles could be launched. Submarines and cruise missiles remain a threat, but ballistic missiles are an entirely new problem. Traditionally, ballistic missiles have been regarded as too inaccurate to hit aircraft carriers, as carriers are relatively small and move pretty quickly. Ballistic missiles are also more difficult to shoot down than cruise missiles, however, and can often be launched from secure bases. New GPS technology and better missile technology also suggest the possibility of the hyper accurate ballistic missiles that would be needed to hit carriers. So yes, there is just a bit of a threat.
But just a bit. I still don't trust the Chinese missiles to actually hit the US carriers; it's too complicated to get into here, but they would need to be almost preternaturally accurate by ballistic missile standards to hit a U.S. carrier. Moreover, GPS technology depends on having a fleet of friendly satellites, which the Chinese lack. As such, I'm inclined to think that the discussion of such weapons is driven more by procurement oriented hype than genuine concerns over Chinese capabilities.
--Robert Farley
