I know that the reconciliation discussion is getting a bit hard to follow. The quick version is that reconciliation is a complicated budget process that could pass health reform with 50 votes. It short-circuits the filibuster. But to be used, reconciliation "instructions" must appear in the budget. They don't exist in the Senate budget. They do exist in the House budget. The question is what happens when the Senate and House meet to iron out their differences. After talking to various Hill sources today, there appear to be three serious possibilities:
- Straight-Up Reconciliation: Senate Democrats bow to the preferences of House Democrats and simply import the reconciliation instructions from their budget. Senate Republicans flee the process but are no longer needed anyway. The trick becomes where Harry Reid can hold his own caucus and fend off parliamentary challenges from Republicans (more on those here).
- Time Bomb Reconciliation: Senate Democrats and House Democrats agree on a new set of reconciliation instructions. Under this scenario, the budget only activates the reconciliation process in the event that there's no bill by the fall. Reconciliation then acts as an enforcer on the legislative time frame: If the two parties can't come to agreement by September or so, the reconciliation process activates and Republicans are essentially locked out.
- Back Pocket Reconciliation: Reconciliation is purged from the budget but the chairman of both budget committees essentially signal that if the normal process breaks down, they will pass budget revisions that include reconciliation instruction. Such revisions would only require 50 votes and 10 hours of floor debate.
The real action, I'm told, is between the second and third options. And it's simply a political judgment on whether Republicans are more or less likely to cooperate if they're threatened by reconciliation. The second option is more attractive if you believe that the threat of reconciliation should be omnipresent in the debate. It's the equivalent of having your mean, heavily-tattooed older brother stand quietly behind you when you ask the kids down the street if you can play ball with them. The third option is more attractive if you believe that the bipartisanship is likelier to work in an environment where Republicans don't think Democrats are willing to walk from the table at any moment. The expectation is that the House and Senate will meet to work out their budgets after the April recess. So we should know soon enough. Related: A reconciliation primer.
