My friend Raffaello Pantucci, research associate at CSIS, sends in this analysis of the conflict as it currently stands:
"The Middle East is often read in the West as a baffling and self-destructive enigma. This is an essentially condescending analysis that often leads to incorrect short-term assumptions. We are currently in the middle of watching one such scenario unfold in a depressingly typical manner on the Israel-Lebanon border as Israeli and Hezbollah forces lash out at each other in their timeless deadly jig of reaction and counter-reaction. Yet this analysis misses the simple fact that the only beneficiary from this entire up-tick in violence in the Middle East is the Mullah regime in Tehran who have deftly managed to use their most provocative foreign policy tool, Hezbollah, to distract the world from their nuclear weapons program.
It is commonly recognized that Hezbollah is an Iranian creation. It is also a commonly recognized fact that Israel, a nation that sees itself as surrounded by enemies, has a tendency to react to assaults with swift and deadly punishment against the actors they see as behind the attack. The best defense is offensive, and if you are fighting enemies who have at the heart of their credo your annihilation you cannot afford to show fear in their face.
As a result, the most elementary analyst of the Middle East could have predicted that Israel was likely to react to the kidnapping of its soldiers with an all-out assault on the perpetrators no matter where they were. Such an action tests not only Israeli resolve, but also places the newly appointed Prime Minister Ehud Olmert in his first baptism of fire as head of state. This is something he cannot fail if he wants to live up to his predecessors and maintain his political credibility in the Knesset.
