Simon Rosenberg argues that McCain is currently below his natural polling floor due to a combination of bad decisions and unhelpful world events, and folks should expect to see the race tighten in the final few weeks. "43 percent for a major GOP candidate in a two-way race? No way we are going to end up there," he says. The number to watch is Obama's. If he hangs out around 50 percent, he wins. If he starts dropping -- rather than if McCain rises slightly, as pissed off GOP voters return to the fold -- it's a more telling trend.
