This graphic from the latest Washington Post This graphic from the latest Washington Post poll is the hardest evidence yet that Bush is in decline. Forgetting Iraq, which has traditionally had a capricious relationship with the polls, look at terrorism. So far as I know, Bush has never, ever, not in a single survey, faced public disapproval on terrorism. That wasn't a reflection of the job he was doing but of the image he projects. After all, Americans can't see what's happening in the War on Terror, but they can see the War President swaggering across their televisions and looking, for all the world, like a man who can't be bothered to make sense on domestic policy, so focused is he on ripping Osama bin-Laden's throat out.
If his ratings are nosediving on terrorism, we're seeing a direct rejection of the Bush persona. Nothing has happened recently to publicly signal a change in fortunes in our fight against al-Qaeda, so this means that, in the eyes of America, Bush himself is becoming smaller, less threatening, less impressive, less equal to the task. By injecting himself into piddling partisan fights and arguments over Senate procedures -- and losing -- Bush has destroyed confidence in his single, seeming unshakeable strong point. Till now, terrorism was endlessly salient and blissfully intangible; no matter how many other issues Bush lost their confidence on Americans always believed in his leadership against terror, and so they always overlooked the rest. Without terror, however, Bush is a lame duck, much like he was before the Towers were struck.
As for the Democrats, they finally have an opening and they better be prepared to use it. Happily for them, the Center for American Progress released something of a How-To this morning, their National Security Strategy for the 21st Century. I'm only 20 pages in, so I'll withhold substantive comment, but it is, so far, a good guide as to how Democrats could press the advantage on homeland security, nuclear proliferation, military issues, diplomacy, and global resentment. My guess is that, as a short-term strategy, the best approach is to keep the focus on domestic policy, where Bush seems eternally ham-handed and politically obtuse. As the poll shows, his screw-ups there are bleeding into all other areas and dismantling the myth of the Warrior-King that carried him through the last election. Nevertheless, a weakened Bush will eventually refocus on foreign affairs -- right in time for 2006, unless I miss my guess -- and this time, with these numbers, Democrats had better be ready.
