TOMMENTUM! So Tom Vilsack is apparently dropping out of the race, which is probably the best thing for all involved. This just isn't a year that favors centrist technocrats who want to price index Social Security. The immediate impact of his decision will be to make Iowa significantly more important than it would otherwise be, even if he were to lose it. The absence of an obvious hometown boy will eliminate excuses for losing the state, and so it'll remain nearly a must-win for all involved. My current guess is that Edwards can't survive a second place finish there, Clinton can't survive a third, and Kucinich needs to place at least eleventh. Obama remains such a wild card -- and New Hampshire likes wild cards -- that he's a bit trickier to handicap. --Ezra Klein.
