Now that former Rep. Pat Toomey is officially running against Sen. Arlen Specter in the state's 2010 Republican primary, the National Republican Senatorial Committee is in a tight spot. Why? The moderate Specter is the best chance for the GOP to hold the seat and maintain its dwindling caucus. The more conservative Toomey, on the other hand, is popular among the Republican base. Pennsylvania, which went for President Barack Obama in last fall's presidential election, is a reliably blue state and continues to give the president, as well as his policy agenda, high approval ratings.
NRSC Chairman Sen. John Cornyn has made the pragmatic calculation and thrown his support behind Specter, but that could have repercussions with grass-roots conservatives who have been dominating the intra-party conversation since the beginning of the new administration. If Toomey beats Specter -- and there's every reason to believe he can win the primary after a narrow loss in 2004 and the shrinking of the Pennsylvania GOP -- then he will have a very tough road ahead against the eventual Democratic candidate. One good thing for Cornyn and Toomey is that no one is sure who the Democratic candidate will be; perhaps Reps. Patrick Murphy or Allyson Schwartz will give the race a shot. With Toomey in, though, we can expect Democrats to start making their intentions known in the near future.
-- Tim Fernholz
