Turn of Events

Suddenly the Democratic Party wants to duke it out on everything, from Tom DeLay to John Bolton to everything in between. Despite the beating that Bolton is taking at the hands of Democrats, there remains a better than even chance that he will be confirmed as ambassador to the United Nations -- as long as White House officials continue to fight for him. The bottom line is not matter how much Democrats frag Bolton in the next weeks; the only way his nomination dies is if Republicans abandon him and defy their president.

It is possible to imagine that Bolton's interpersonal-skills disorders might cost him support among independent GOP senators. But it is nearly impossible to see how the White House could lose this fight over charges that, when you add them up, amount to the fact that Bolton is a hard-driving, ideological mega-jerk who likes to get his way even if it means running people into the ground to get it. How do these qualities become a sufficient disqualifier giving GOP senators enough cover to go against their president?

They don't!

For Democrats, however, it does not matter: The Bolton nomination is already paying dividends, and may continue to do so even if they lose. With little reason to think they could win, they've put up a fight and have refused to back off. They've come off looking organized and determined. And if they manage to win this fight, they may also begin to appear effective.

That's the shocker. All of a sudden, Democrats are shooting to kill.

By all the regular standards of modern-day Washington, Bolton has no right to be in trouble: He had the votes in committee, he had friends at the White House, and he was not sufficiently well-known for public demonization or ridicule. What's more, he was nominated to be ambassador to the UN, not a federal judge with a lifetime appointment who could have something to say about abortion or gay marriage.

Even though some have said the Bolton battle is a replay of the clash over foreign-policy ideology or manipulated intelligence, the truth is that if Bolton goes down, it'll be because he will have been found guilty of being too nasty, which used to be on par with blowing your nose too loudly in public.

But the winds are shifting. First, his support on the committee, at least temporarily, is greatly diminished. Second, it is no longer a certainty that President Bush can save Bolton. And third, he has achieved enough notoriety, to qualify as a punch line on the late-night comedy shows. And all of this is due to the fact that Democrats have suddenly become a party willing to take the fight to the death:

Ergo: President Bush spends two months touting Social Security privatization, and more people oppose his proposal now than opposed it when he started the tour (mainly because Democrats have been pummeling the idea).

Ergo: The GOP leadership in the House, having been beaten up by Democrats over new ethics rules that seemed tailored to shield DeLay from the fallout of ethics probes, are looking for a way to change the rules back. And even in the more delicate fight over judicial filibusters, where Republicans may have the upper hand, Democrats are playing hardball, offering to compromise if Majority Leader Bill Frist takes the “nuclear option” off the table.

Yet it is worth noting that although Democrats may be fighting a more organized fight, you can't call it winning. Right now the question is whether Democrats have the guts to go nuclear themselves and block the Senate from doing business for months at a time. Fighting requires courage; a siege demands fortitude.

Terence Samuel is the chief congressional correspondent for U.S. News & World Report. His column about politics appears each week in the Prospect's online edition.