I've been thinking about I've been thinking about Tom's post yesterday on whether voter turnout might actually decline in November. I have to say I'm fairly skeptical that this would occur. While it may be true that there's a considerable lack of enthusiasm about John McCain among certain segments of the right, there will surely be a solid turnout against whomever the Democratic nominee is, and there's also a likely to be a surge in voting by those on the right who are very, very happy to see the end of the Bush years. On the Democratic side, I doubt that the Democrats who wouldn't turnout because their first-choice candidate lost the nomination is at all sizable. There may be a few, but then again, there always are. And in this election, I think the excitement about ending the Bush years (and by extension, keeping them from continuing by rejecting McCain) far exceeds any possible effects of this contentious primary.
As Tom pointed out, voter turnout has been on the rise in the past two presidential elections. Perhaps more importantly, it has shot up in this primary, especially among Democrats. This isn't because people are rabidly against the other candidates – few voters seem to be. It's because their excited to be part of the process. Take Pennsylvania, for instance, since it's the place everyone's focused on right now. Voter registration for the April 22 presidential primary is approaching a new record, up to 8.32 million, and county election officials are still counting the applications that made it in by the March 24 deadline. Registered Democrats are up to 4.2 million, an 8 percent increase since last fall. Perhaps most notably, Democrats now outnumber Republicans in Bucks and Montgomery counties, two longtime Republican strongholds. It's a trend that's been seen all over the country.
So while of course we'll have to wait and see what happens come November, I think a drop in turnout is highly improbable.
--Kate Sheppard
