Tom Schaller does a fairly good job busting the myth that African-Americans don't turn out. They already turn out at disproportionate rates, in large part because they have institutions like churches that foster and direct civic involvement. Moreover, when they turn out at high rates, white folks in the South come out in larger numbers to vote against them. It's all pretty depressing, and it suggests that Obama isn't going to change the map like some folks hope. Democrats will largely lose the South, just like they always do. But so what? I think the more worrying thing is that Obama won't do much for Hispanic turnout, and will be running against John McCain, who's got good and deep connections to that community. It's interesting that despite the xenophobic turn of the GOP, the Republicans nominated the only guy in their party capable of credibly claiming a history of support for comprehensive and humane immigration reform. The question is whether McCain will be able to make that argument, or whether attempts to try will depress his support among white, male conservatives.
