THE TURTLEDOVE STYLE IN AMERICAN POLITICS. Jon Chait has a new entry in the popular progressive genre of "If Only We'd Lost." In it, he argues that beating Gerald Ford in 1976 was a grievous blow to liberalism. Jimmy Carter, after all, was a disaster for the Democratic Party, if only because he presided over a period of economic duress (stagflation) and national diminishment (Iranian hostage crisis). That Carter handled both with relative good sense -- the Iranian hostages, in particular, benefitted from his unwillingness to enter a deadly and disastrous war -- did nothing for his national standing or the party he hailed from. That said, there are a thousand of these moments scattered throughout the 20th century. If either or both Kennedys hadn't been shot, for instance. Or if Reagan's assassin had been deadlier. Or if Clinton had lost to George H.W Bush, forestalling the 1994 Republican Revolution and the decade's scandals. Or if the Supreme Court hadn't appointed George W. Bush, and a competent Democrat -- rather than screw-up Republican -- had occupied the Oval Office on 9/11. This is why folks sometimes joke that God is a Republican. But this is a useless exercise. It's no surprise that liberals, who performed quite poorly in the latter half the 20th century, can look back on the epochal events and wish they'd gone differently. But they should rediscover their pessimism -- does the history of the 20th century suggest mercy for progressivism? Ford could've bowed to pressure within his party and launched a catastrophic invasion of Iran. The 1994 Republican Revolution was the inevitable realignment of the Dixiecrats, and if it hadn't happened in one fell swoop, it might not have burnt out so quickly. Reagan's assassination would have canonized his policies, and George H.W Bush could have followed Lyndon Johnson's example and pushed his martyred predecessor's agenda far further than it would've otherwise gone. In other words: Who knows? The last few decades have been dispiriting, so these alternative histories and retroactive justifications (see my entry into the genre here) have been something of a comfort. But it's time to leave the What If's to Harry Turtledove and Marvel. If, in the past, things had gone differently, then they'd have been different. And so far as liberalism goes, had it been a stronger movement in 20th century, we wouldn't be having this conversation. The question isn't what moment is best for your ideology to take office, but how to construct an ideology able to endure and succeed in tough times.
--Ezra Klein
