Kevin Drum certainly does an admirable fisking of claims that "uncertainty" is driving the economic doldrums, thoroughly refuting the confusion that businesses apparently have about the future of government policy. The broader question about "uncertainty," though, is this: When has their ever been a consensus that government policy won't change? That is, has there even been a time when businesses had complete certainty, or at least more than they do now?
I doubt it. Tax policy is always a subject of debate, health-care-reform schemes come and go, and financial regulation has included three or four major changes in the last two decades. There's always something going on that might change a business' strategy, and this year seems no different than any other, except that some of the outcomes might not entirely reflect the preferences of the business community, which is easily divined as the real reason for this explosion of existential crises among the corporate elite.
It's pretty embarrassing, frankly. These business leaders are supposed to compete in dynamic, global markets, triumphing with strong productivity, sound management and the best workers in the world. But now their entire operation is stopped because they don't know if the personal income tax rate will change by 3 percentage points or they can't read the health-care bill implementation schedule? Please.
-- Tim Fernholz
