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Like Jon Chait, I don't think there's any method to McCain's madness. Rather, the evidence points to him being an erratic candidate who overreacts when he senses his political fortunes sinking. I keep thinking of the Joke: "Do I really look like a guy with a plan? You know what I am? I'm a dog chasing cars. I wouldn't know what to do with one if I caught it. You know, I just do things."McCain just does things. But one thing he did is toss the expectations game for tonight's debate into chaos. Usually, candidates simply aver that they're not very good debaters. Barack Obama's press guy Bill Burton is currently sending around e-mails with quotes from negative reviews of Obama's past debate performances. McCain has done them one better: It's not just that he's bad at debating, but that there's nowhere on earth he'd less like to be than at the debate. His very presence on that stage is a form of defeat, and there's a non-trivial chance that his capacity to spend 90 minutes phrasing answers in the form of a Germanic language will be enough to get the press shaking their heads admiringly at his grit and toughness and adaptability. Two months ago, McCain was the guy who'd been doing this for 30 years. The guy you could trust and count on and predict. Over the past few weeks, he's proven himself so erratic and risk-prone that if he can simply modulate his tone and refrain from accidentally asking Lehrer for a fourth-quarter time out or a third lifeline, the audience will be comforted. The expectations are low, and in some ways, that's a victory. But on another level, it's an incredibly damning judgment, and evidence of how far McCain has fallen.Image used under a CC license from LZ Creations.