The dynamic trio of Nate Silver, Andrew Gelman, and Aaron Edlin just released an interesting paper examining how likely it is that your vote will flip a state, and maybe even the election, given the realities of the electoral college. As you may imagine, there are graphs. The first one charts the probability of a decisive vote in a particular state against its electoral vote total:
If you want your vote to matter, in other words, it's a good idea to live in New Mexico. Conversely, it's an extremely bad idea to live in California. This next graph examines how likely it is that your state is necessary for an electoral college win, how likely it is that your state is tied, and thus, how likely it is that your vote could flip the election:
Here, it looks like Virginia is your best bet, along with New Hampshire, Colorado, and New Mexico. You still shouldn't live in California. Or, frankly, anywhere else. Indeed, given numbers like these, it's a wonder that the necessary 2/3rds of state's don't implement the National Popular Vote strategy right this second and effectively end the system's ability to take them for granted. C'mon states! Rise up! You have nothing to lose but your own irrelevance!
If you want your vote to matter, in other words, it's a good idea to live in New Mexico. Conversely, it's an extremely bad idea to live in California. This next graph examines how likely it is that your state is necessary for an electoral college win, how likely it is that your state is tied, and thus, how likely it is that your vote could flip the election:Here, it looks like Virginia is your best bet, along with New Hampshire, Colorado, and New Mexico. You still shouldn't live in California. Or, frankly, anywhere else. Indeed, given numbers like these, it's a wonder that the necessary 2/3rds of state's don't implement the National Popular Vote strategy right this second and effectively end the system's ability to take them for granted. C'mon states! Rise up! You have nothing to lose but your own irrelevance! 
