With the departure of With the departure of John Edwards from the race for the Democratic nomination yesterday, the focus now turns to how the vacuum left by his campaign will affect the campaigns of Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton. First there is the question of delegates, which turns out to be the easiest puzzle to solve. According to the Democratic Convention Watch blog, all of Edwards' uncommitted superdelegates (27) will go back to a "no endorsement" pool. Edwards' delegates from the New Hampshire and South Carolina primaries (12) will revert to uncommitted, while his caucus delegates from Iowa (17) will be reallocated to Obama and Clinton proportionately, based on their performance in those events.
The more important consequence of Edward's departure is where his supporters will go. Here, demographics appear decisive, yet inconclusive. A Times article yesterday on Southern Super Tuesday states notes widespread reluctance amongst white voters in these states to support Obama's campaign, although this doesn't automatically translate into support for Clinton.
Meanwhile, John Judis notes the significance of voters' age in determining candidate support. Older voters tended to support Edwards, he notes, which should translate into support for Clinton, given her past performance among older voters. And among "moderates" in New Hampshire, there appears to have been greater support for Obama than Clinton, based on a 19-point difference in disapproval ratings.
