Yes, I know that 2008 is not 2004, and yes, I know Barack Obama is no John Kerry. But I still think it's gonna be awfully hard for Obama to win anything outside of Virginia and Florida in the South, as I explain in The New York Times this morning.
People forget that as recently as autumn 2006 -- two years after his re-election, according to state-by-state Survey USA polls -- George W. Bush's approval was around 32 percent nationally yet still hovered around 55-60 percent among white southerners. And because that nationwide benchmark includes that white southern support, when you subtract them out, his support among southern whites in some states was twice what it was among all other non-white southerners and non-southerners of any race (roughly 28 percent) in America combined! Just ponder that discrepancy for a moment.
Of course, John McCain is no Bush, either. And if McCain picks Mormon Mitt to be his running mate, there could be wholesale stay-at-home problems in the South for McCain-Romney. So, I may have to eat my words. But guess what: If Obama wins Georgia and Mississippi and South Carolina, well, the South isn't critical anyway because Obama will have won 26 to 35 non-southern states worth at least 330 electors.
--Tom Schaller
