During this week's Republican National Convention, pundits have been speculating on who will be in a John McCain administration. The choice of advisers for McCain is especially important because he will likely be relying on them just as much, if not more, than President Bush has on his. In fact, McCain risks being overtaken by a McCain administration.
All candidates and presidents rely on their confidants for advice. But something more has been happening in the McCain campaign. McCain's advisers, rather than the candidate himself, are often the authoritative voices. Who will actually run a McCain administration?
For example, while on the campaign trail, McCain has promised to repeal the alternative minimum tax, allow businesses to expense all investments in equipment, double the tax deduction for dependents, and create a simplified alternative tax system. Privately, however, McCain's advisers are saying that these expensive promises aren't official policy. When questioned about the discrepancy, chief economic adviser Douglas Holtz-Eakin dismissed McCain's promises: "He has certainly, I'm sure, said things in town halls." In short, what McCain is saying doesn't really matter.
Similarly, McCain's friends have had to publicly correct him when he has messed up the facts, casting more doubt on whether what McCain says is reliable. The most high-profile instance was in March, when McCain mistakenly told reporters in Jordan that Iranian operatives were "taking al-Qaeda into Iran, training them and sending them back." Sen. Joe Lieberman -- a conservative favorite for secretary of state -- had to quietly step in and whisper to his old friend that Iranians were training extremists, not al-Qaeda.
McCain's advisers are dictating the campaign's positions in another way, as well. At times, it's hard to distinguish between McCain's views and the financial interests of his advisers.
At the same time that he was lobbying on behalf of the Georgian government, senior foreign-policy adviser Randy Scheunemann was persuading McCain to reach out to the president of the country and publicly express his support for Georgia. In fact, shortly after McCain nominated Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili for the Nobel Peace Prize, the Georgian government signed a lucrative new 12-month contract (PDF) with Scheunemann. While chairman of the Senate Committee on Commerce, Science and Transportation, McCain repeatedly pushed for telecom mergers that benefited his associates and their clients, including his campaign manager Rick Davis. What's more, McCain's advisers are not always more moderate than he is and can be just as unpredictable. At times, they have spoken for McCain even when he might not want them to. After former Sen. Phil Gramm infamously called America a "nation of whiners," McCain tried to separate himself from his former adviser by asserting, "Phil Gramm does not speak for me." That same day, Gramm was speaking for McCain at a Wall Street Journal editorial board meeting. All of this has created the impression of a candidate who is more like a figurehead being propped up by his advisers. Instead of commanding his campaign, his advisers seem to be running the show. In fact, it at times mirrors workings of the current administration.
When Bush won the election in 2000, many Americans consoled themselves by believing that this frat boy would at least be advised by experienced government hands. Ultimately, however, many of these advisers ended up controlling the strings of the administration, often without the knowledge of the president. The most infamous figure, of course, has become Vice President Cheney, who has repeatedly taken advantage of Bush's cluelessness to grab increased power.
The problem is not just that Bush has allowed a hard-line conservative to do much of his governing. By taking advantage of the fact that he's not the president -- making it easier to escape public scrutiny -- Cheney has arguably been much more destructive than Bush ever could have been. Uncontrolled conservatives in a McCain administration could be more dangerous than just a conservative president.
Even McCain's running mate, Sarah Palin, is showing some of these tendencies. Palin has refused to release e-mails from her administration by citing executive privilege, even though media reports have cast doubt on whether they are actually related to official business. As mayor, Palin came under fire for requiring that all city department chiefs get her approval before talking to reporters. An editorial in the Wasilla Frontiersman labeled it a "gag order."
McCain has bragged about the wise advisers he'd rely upon in the White House. But many of these powerful figures may leave McCain behind. In fact, the senator has even expressed enthusiasm at having Cheney serve in his administration. "Hell, yeah," he said in 2007 about the prospect. Karl Rove is an informal adviser to the McCain campaign and may be itching at the opportunity to get back into government. The so-called "architect" is certainly no stranger to manipulation and control. There are people like Holtz-Eakin, senior campaign adviser Carly Fiorina, and even Mitt Romney who are far-better versed in certain policy areas than the senator and may have their own agenda. There's also chief of staff Mark Salter, who has literally put words into the senator's mouth as speechwriter and author of McCain's biography.
Bush had to beware of advisers older and more experienced than he was taking control of his administration. McCain will have to watch out for advisers who are younger, sharper, and more energetic. The first scenario created eight years of disastrous policies. The second scenario may be no different.
