WILL CARVILLE ABANDON THE BUBBAS?

WILL CARVILLE ABANDON THE BUBBAS? James Carville's post-election tirade against Howard Dean got me to thinking about Hillary Clinton's 50-state presidential chances in 2008. As a Hillary person, Carville surely must be pondering ways she can amass 270 electoral votes. Presuming she starts with the same 252 electors John Kerry won, there are five routes for her to get the other 18:

1. Single-shot Florida. Less competitive in 2004 (Bush by 5 points) than during the Year of the Recount, the 27 electors from this least southern of the southern states will be on any Democratic nominee's target list. But she's no lock to win the Sunshine State.2. Single-shot Ohio. The 2006 midterms revealed Ohio to be trending blue, and with Secretary of State Ken Blackwell out of the way it will be easier to put Ohio's 20 electors into the Democratic column, with two electors to spare. This would be my recommended route.3. Flip three of the four southwestern states. If John McCain's on the ticket, Jesus couldn't win Arizona for the Democrats. But even without Arizona, Colorado (9), Nevada (5), and New Mexico (5) offer 19 electors and a total of 271 -- exactly the number Bush used to squeeze into White House in 2000.4 and 5. Flip either of two pairs from the four 36th Parallel states. The 36th parallel forms the southern borders of Kentucky, Missouri, and Virginia, with West Virginia's southernmost portion tucked just above. Kentucky (8) and Missouri (11) duplicate the non-Arizona southwestern trio's 19 electors, and the Virginias combine for another 18 -- the bare minimum needed.

I'd love to know which permutations Carville is considering. Is he willing to bet on Hillary winning Virginia, or even Florida? If not, she surely can't carry any other southern states, which means -- you saw it coming, didn't you? -- Carville will have to consider a non-southern strategy.When his ideological-geographic loyalties run headlong into sober electoral calculus, will the Rajun Cajun be forced to abandon his own native region in service to Clinton-dom? If so, it will be fun to watch Steve Jarding, Mudcat Saunders, and Ed Kilgore pillory Carville for being an immoral elitist who sneers at Bubbas and practices the "politics of subtraction."

--Tom Schaller