More important than Vermont's recent vote to approve gay marriage (I mean, it's Vermont) is the D.C. City Council's preliminary vote to recognize gay marriages performed elsewhere. This is being seen as something of a test run for a coming vote on gay marriage itself, which councilman Jim Graham now says will pass easily. The significance is partly symbolic. The country's capitol will approve gay marriage. But it's also procedural. Due to D.C.'s strange system of governance, the District's laws are subject to approval by Congress. If D.C. passes a gay marriage ordinance, the House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform and the subcommittee that handles District matters will have to either reject D.C.'s decision or accept it. If they reject it, the outrage from gay donors and activist groups will be overwhelming. If they approve it, even on federalist grounds, the Right will argue that Congress has literally approved gay marriage. Nate Silver, meanwhile, went ahead and did his Nate Silver thing and created a model predicting when various states would legalize gay marriage. The main variables were "The year in which [an amendment to ban same-sex marriage] was voted upon; the percentage of adults in 2008 Gallup tracking surveys who said that religion was an important part of their daily lives; and the percentage of white evangelicals in the state." The folks over at Map Scroll turned this into a -- what else? -- map:
Update: Washington City Paper has a more fully informed take on the collision between District rule and congressional approval.
Update: Washington City Paper has a more fully informed take on the collision between District rule and congressional approval. 
