Jon Cohn has some cautionary words about the effects of Arlen Specter switching parties:
But the headline currently on the Post home page--"Democrats Get Filibuster-Proof Majority"--is bit-misleading.
Yes, the Dems will have sixty votes in the Senate. But Colorado [sic] Senator Ben Nelson isn't a reliable Democratic vote and, to a lesser extent, neither are moderate Dems like Indiana's Evan Bayh.
This is a fair point. Still, there's one big difference between Specter and the existing centrist Dems: Bayh and Nelson represent very conservative states, and since the Democrats (thankfully) tend to avoid suicidal primary challenges in usually red states, they have a lot of room to cross the Democratic leadership. Specter, on the other hand, not only is the senator of a blue-and-getting-bluer state, but is going to have to win a Democratic primary with an extensive history of capitulation to Republican reactionaries (going back to his behavior during the Clarence Thomas confirmation hearings). It's hard to see him doing anything to obstruct important parts of Obama's agenda in that context. He might put on some of his trademark hand-wringing, but my guess is that he'll be a reliable vote.
--Scott Lemieux
