WHO'S WINNING IN ANBAR? One can rarely peruse a right wing blog these days without reading about how "we're winning" in Anbar. The talking point stems from the decision, in September of last year, of a number of tribal elites in Anbar to focus on operations against Al Qaeda, instead of against the United States military. As Jim Henley notes, crafting an alliance with tribal elites is hardly without risk, and does not constitute "victory" in any meaningful sense for the United States. The U.S. is currently enrolling in Iraqi police and military units tribesmen who were, ten months ago, part of the insurgency. The loyalty of such individuals can hardly be taken for granted; the tribal elite may decide, six months from now, that they are no longer pleased with the U.S. and shift against us. Even if the tribal elites remain loyal, the alliance poses a larger problem for basic U.S. war aims. The alliance with these tribes serves, necessarily, to strengthen them as political units. Strengthening the tribes invariably weakens the central government. As the tribes are also among the least progressive and least interested in democracy of any Iraqi political constituencies, strengthening them also helps undercut efforts towards democratization. So, to the extent that the U.S. goal remains the creation of a strong, democratic central government, the deal with the Sunni tribal leaders is almost completely at odds with the end that we'd like to see. Of course, we've pretty much given up the idea that Iraq will have either a strong or a democratic central government. Having accepted defeat in the main aim of the war, collaboration with Sunni tribal elites is probably the next best option. The victory isn't ours, though; it's theirs. Al Qaeda wasn't in Anbar before the war, and it may be gone from Anbar someday, but the Sunni tribal leaders have maintained and perhaps even increased their autonomy. They've also made themselves targets, but that comes with the territory. Rather than create a shining example for the Middle East, U.S. policy is now directed towards enabling the most conservative elements of Iraqi society. The truly sad thing is that this does, compared with the execution of the first three years of the war, represent something of a victory. --Robert Farley
