The Democrats' only hope for keeping their majority in the House will be protecting a few key seats from Republican takeover -- and that means they will have to concentrate their resources very carefully on the races they believe they can influence, mostly in the Northeast but also in the Rust Belt. As a result, at least when it comes to party spending, certain candidates will be fending for themselves. Right now the Democrats' political operation is trying to figure out who that's going to be; apparently, the folks on the bubble include Betsy Markey, Frank Kratovil, Mary Jo Kilroy, and Tom Perriello. All are first-term members of Congress, elected in 2008, and in the tough spot of being incumbents in a referendum election without having accumulated all the political advantages of longtime incumbency.
Prioritizing races usually causes some rumbling among progressives who see their preferred candidates getting the short end of the stick, but hopefully the Democratic establishment will be smart -- and ruthless -- enough to cut off incumbents who don't merit support, as well as the challengers in tough spots. They have not always done this well. In 2008, the Democratic establishment raised eyebrows when the party spent nearly $300,000 on the late Rep. John Murtha's campaign after a gaffe and the tinge of corruption made him unexpectedly vulnerable. In that case, loyalty to a long-serving Democrat won out over pragmatism. Democrats can't afford to make the same kind of decision this year. That could mean cutting off endangered longtime incumbents in Republican-leaning seats in favor of candidates with a better chance of winning.
-- Tim Fernholz
