As Matt says, it gets a bit tiresome pointing out the asymmetry in assumptions that infects the public debate about Iraq, but it's important. For some reason, staying in is always evaluated according to it best case chance for success (we fix everything!) and leaving according to the worst case scenario for failure (everyone kills each other!). But look, lots of things can happen. As Don Rumsfeld says, every instant we're in Iraq, we're at the mercy of unknown unknowns. One day, a soldier could shoots into a shrine, or mistake an imam for a threat, and suddenly there are massive riots aimed at killing our troops and ejecting us from the country. Or someday, the insurgents might figure out an attack that kills 300 American troops in one murderous blast. Will we run from the country? Will we exact bloody vengeance? Will either outcome enhance stability or achieve our tactical objectives?The fact of it is, every day we're in there is one more day in which something truly unexpected and destructive could occur. Which is one more reason an American withdrawal makes sense: We can control it. The longer we stay in Iraq, the likelier it becomes that something catastrophic occurs to force us out. “What happens if the Ayatollah Sistani gets assassinated?” Larry Korb once asked me. “All hell will break loose. Or what if they shell the green zone and kill several hundred Americans? What do you think the Congress will do? If you set a date, you control your own destiny.” The longer we stay in Iraq, the less control we have, and the more likely it is that we'll eventually be driven from the country, or leave under circumstances not of our choosing, in which we're not able to set conditions for an orderly transfer of power. At this point, we're sitting at the blackjack table, and we're down, and we're not leaving because we're waiting for the big score. But the likelier outcome is that we go bust. At some point, you have to be willing to limit the magnitude and cost of your failure, even if it means giving up your shot at success.(Image used under a Creative Commons license from Soldier's Media Center.) THE WISDOM OF WITHDRAWAL.
As Matt says, it gets a bit tiresome pointing out the asymmetry in assumptions that infects the public debate about Iraq, but it's important. For some reason, staying in is always evaluated according to it best case chance for success (we fix everything!) and leaving according to the worst case scenario for failure (everyone kills each other!). But look, lots of things can happen. As Don Rumsfeld says, every instant we're in Iraq, we're at the mercy of unknown unknowns. One day, a soldier could shoots into a shrine, or mistake an imam for a threat, and suddenly there are massive riots aimed at killing our troops and ejecting us from the country. Or someday, the insurgents might figure out an attack that kills 300 American troops in one murderous blast. Will we run from the country? Will we exact bloody vengeance? Will either outcome enhance stability or achieve our tactical objectives?The fact of it is, every day we're in there is one more day in which something truly unexpected and destructive could occur. Which is one more reason an American withdrawal makes sense: We can control it. The longer we stay in Iraq, the likelier it becomes that something catastrophic occurs to force us out. “What happens if the Ayatollah Sistani gets assassinated?” Larry Korb once asked me. “All hell will break loose. Or what if they shell the green zone and kill several hundred Americans? What do you think the Congress will do? If you set a date, you control your own destiny.” The longer we stay in Iraq, the less control we have, and the more likely it is that we'll eventually be driven from the country, or leave under circumstances not of our choosing, in which we're not able to set conditions for an orderly transfer of power. At this point, we're sitting at the blackjack table, and we're down, and we're not leaving because we're waiting for the big score. But the likelier outcome is that we go bust. At some point, you have to be willing to limit the magnitude and cost of your failure, even if it means giving up your shot at success.(Image used under a Creative Commons license from Soldier's Media Center.) 
