Brian, over at his excellent (but unpronounceable) new blog, has a good post on last week's Iraq debate. For those who didn't read it, I squared off with TNR's Adam Kushner on the subject of withdrawal, which I support and he opposes. The exchange finished on Friday, and now Brian's entering the fray. Sigh. Suckas just always gotta step.
The conflict, as it exists now iooks much more like a job for
an extremely muscular peace-keeping body. Much more muscular than, say,
NATO of the UN has ever offered. The growing numbers of dead Iraqis is
a gruesome testament to that, and to the obvious fact that, as Ezra
points out and as Adam shockingly tries to refute, we're not making
things any better anymore. Sorry Adam. This is as progressive as things
are going to get there without a drastic revision to our strategy.[...]
And even if we pull back and nothing changes, or things don't improve enough, or, God forbid, things get worse,
THEN we can get serious about an international action. A real one. And
perhaps, at last, the casualties and the financial and moral cost of
this travesty won't rest entirely on us.
Oh. Well that's a very good point. If withdrawal left the region a seething cauldron of internal strife, that'd prove a reality the international community would be compelled to deal with, if for no other reason than regional stability. It'd be our fault, sure, but everyone's responsibility. And once we'd attempted an evacuation, there'd no longer be the excuse that our presence is the problem and our absence the simple solution. Right now, that's a viable hypothesis, as it'll force the Iraqis to stop relying on Americans for their fighting and peacekeeping and begin dealing with each other in a realistic context. Shi'ites don't want a civil war, Sunnis know they can't win one. As of now, both sides realize Americans won't let it get out of hand. If we remove the backup, however, that comfort disappears, and the actors need to choose between a future they know to be hell and a reconciliation they know will be unpleasant. Forcing them to make that choice will clrafiy the next step considerably.
