THE YOUTH VOTE: Zack Roth's piece in the new Washington Monthly on Tim Ryan, identifies a potentially important swing constituency in the '08 elections: young people. As Roth notes, "In last fall�s midterms, Democrats increased their share of the vote among eighteen- to twenty-nine-year-olds by 11 percentage points, while gaining only around 6 points with voters thirty and older, according to exit polls." So it is clear that young people have been up for grabs in recent years, and that performing well among them is key to the Democrats' success--especially because, as Roth points out, people who vote for the same party in several consecutive presidential elections before they turn 30 almost always stick with that party throughout their life. All of this is intensified by the fact that youth turnout has reached historic highs in the last two elections. Right now, President Bush and Republicans poll particularly poorly among young people, as the recently released Harvard Institute of Politics poll results demonstrate (that poll was for 18-24 year olds.) But those numbers showing disapproval of President Bush's job performance and the country's direction are somewhat complicated by the fact that young people (ages 18-29) are actually the age demographic most likely to support the Iraq War. So while it is clear that the Democrats must appeal to young people, it is not apparent how they should do so--attacking the Iraq War may not be the right answer. The Harvard poll gives some clues: young people support multilateralism and are concerned about genocide in Darfur. The first candidate to present a plan for an effective multilateral intervenetion, and to talk up a multilateral plan for Iraq withdrawal, may reap some major rewards. It should also be noted, though, that Rudy Giuliani leads all Republican contenders among young people. Given his prominence in 9/11, which happened when today's young voters were young adolescents, he might be the Republican candidate with the most appeal to them in the general election. --Ben Adler
