What's the weather going to be on Election Day? In many important districts, rain is expected, and that's got Democrats nervous. At campaign stops yesterday, Pennsylvania Senate candidate Joe Sestak asked his supporters to vote "even if it's raining." At Bucks County Democratic headquarters, phone-bankers offered similar reminders, and nervous operatives checked forecasts, hoping that recent gains in the polls -- among all voters, if not likely ones -- could be capitalized on at the ballot box.
"We're poised to have a very strong get-out-the-vote effort, providing the weather works with us that day," Bucks County Democratic Party Chair John Cordisco says. "Which is something I couldn't say three months ago."
Inclement weather tends to drive down turnout among less enthusiastic voters who'd rather not risk getting soaked in the course of fulfilling their civic responsibility. A good field operation can compensate for the damp by ferrying voters around and chivying them out of their homes with phone reminders, but with Democrats needing to shoot for the moon to scrape together a decent result on Nov. 2, they need all the precipitation forbearance they can get.
The phenomenon is also reminiscent of some of the practical issues raised by reports of electoral fraud in Bucks County, ably dissected by Adam. It's awfully strange, when you think about it, that something as arbitrary as the weather could play a decisive role in choosing our government officials. That the inefficiencies in our system of assessing preference favor intensity of support might be a virtue, but it's entirely possible that momentous policy decisions hinge on Mr. Sunshine's mood come Tuesday.
-- Tim Fernholz
