What Is DeSantis’s Game?

Today on TAP: The Florida governor has peaked too soon and has nowhere to go but down.

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For starters, let’s take a look at the fights that Ron DeSantis has picked. He can’t quite decide whether to appeal to the Trump base by obliquely attacking Trump or by defending him against allegedly partisan prosecutions. He has been wildly inconsistent in his statements on Ukraine.

DeSantis has been outplayed by Florida’s largest employer, with more than 70,000 jobs and the state’s most beloved theme park destination. The Disney corporation legally acted to lock in its agreement for privatized governance before DeSantis’s new trustees took office. The Mouse will be there long after DeSantis is gone.

Remember that DeSantis’s feud with Disney was not about their sweetheart deal for private government and tax breaks in the two counties where Disney World sprawls. DeSantis had no problem with that until Disney opposed Florida’s “Don’t say gay” law. Last Thursday, DeSantis doubled down, threatening state legislation to void Disney’s deal, as well as higher taxes, tolls on Disney roads, and seizure of Disney development land under eminent domain.

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DeSantis is also managing to alienate right-wing media with his effort to make it easier for public figures to sue for libel. This was meant to intimidate liberal media. But far-right media are justifiably terrified, because they lie more, and more flagrantly. If Florida lowers the bar for libel suits, it’s MAGA’s friends who risk losing billions.

He’s also about to sign a state law effectively banning abortion by limiting it to six gestational weeks, at a time when the abortion issue is backfiring against Republicans all over the country.

Florida is not Mississippi. DeSantis barely got elected in 2018, defeating a Black Democrat, former Tallahassee mayor Andrew Gillum, by just 32,000 votes. As an incumbent, he got lucky and won by nearly 20 points in 2022 against a worn-out Charlie Crist and an incompetent state Democratic Party, but voters are fickle.

His crusade against public schools, for much-exaggerated sins of promoting wokeism, plays well with the right-wing hard core, but is alienating other parents and educators.

So what is DeSantis’s game? It’s very simple and totally opportunist. He hopes to pursue the 2024 Republican nomination by out-Trumping Trump.

The problem with that strategy, however, is that Trump himself is very much in evidence. Trump’s popularity has risen with the MAGA base as he paints himself as victim once again.

Why should Trump fans vote for the copy when they can get the original? Trump now outpolls DeSantis among base GOP voters by at least 2-to-1.

There is the further problem that DeSantis’s postures may play well with the Republican far right, but they will not travel well in a general election. With his views on censorship of education and denial of reproductive rights, it’s hard to see him carrying Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, or Michigan. The more Trumpy DeSantis looks, the more he defeats himself.

Of course, DeSantis is also playing a long game. If Trump chokes on his own bile and his health fails, DeSantis has positioned himself as the logical stand-in. And if Trump runs and loses in 2024, DeSantis could be a front-runner for the GOP nomination in 2028, when he will have just turned 50.

That scenario, however, glosses over how toxic DeSantis would be with Democrats and independents in any general election.

Remember Bobby Jindal? The Asian American two-term governor of Louisiana was hailed as the next new GOP phenomenon. He announced for president in June 2015, and totally flopped. Heard much about Bobby Jindal lately?

DeSantis could be the next Donald Trump. More likely, the next Bobby Jindal.

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