Stephanie Scarbrough/AP Photo
President Joe Biden delivers remarks at Mother Emanuel AME Church in Charleston, South Carolina, January 8, 2024.
Reports of a private conversation between former President Obama and President Biden expressing Obama’s anguish about Biden losing the 2024 election are only the latest sign of well-informed panic in senior Democratic ranks. Several of us at the Prospect have entertained the thought that Biden is doomed and that the Democrats need to get another candidate.
Here’s the argument: A fresh face, a generation younger than Biden, would take the age issue off the table, and the geezer would be Trump. A new candidate would presumably be free of at least some of Biden’s baggage, namely a bout of inflation (that wasn't Biden’s fault) and two Biden wars that have become quagmires. Almost any of several possible alternatives is better than Biden speaking off the cuff.
Having entertained that fantasy, I need to say that there is no plausible scenario for replacing Biden with someone who would do better against Trump. If Biden were to stumble badly in the January 23 New Hampshire primary, where he is running an awkward write-in campaign, there would be a free-for-all. If Biden were to pull out after several key primary deadlines, if would fall to the Democratic National Committee to find a nominee. Good luck with that. Either scenario is a train wreck.
And who might that nominee be? If it were someone other than Kamala Harris, there would be an even worse falloff in Black votes. But nominating Harris would leave Democrats with an even weaker candidate than Biden.
If the voters or the DNC decided to displace Harris, my own favorite would be Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer. But with two foreign military crises dominating the news, will voters support someone with no foreign-policy experience? Possibly, but getting to Whitmer would be quite a feat.
Just to add to the gloom, we have several third-party candidates. As a group, they are more likely to pull votes from Biden than from Trump.
The Biden people, and the reliably irritating Simon Rosenberg, are whistling past the graveyard, touting good economic news that is lost on working-class voters, and claiming that current polls don’t matter because once voters focus on the real choice of Biden or Trump, the swing voters will shift to Biden.
But this leaves out the fact that the real swing voters are those who decide to turn out or to stay home. And Biden’s overly ardent embrace of Netanyahu’s laying waste to Gaza is costing the Democrats dearly with young voters and voters of color.
So is nothing to be done other than explore the rules for emigrating to Canada? We can’t take 20 years off Biden, but there are actually several things to be done.
For starters, as Obama suggested, Biden needs a campaign team that is not the same as his top White House staffers.
Second, he needs to stop touting his economic successes and make the campaign about Trump. His Valley Forge speech was a good start.
I thought the Charleston speech, aimed at rallying the Black vote, was less effective because it lacked Obama’s touch at uniting Black and white voters. The “cease-fire now” interruptions were a reminder that there is more than one way to depress the Black vote.
Third, Biden needs to end the two wars that are dragging down his credibility as a leader. Netanyahu (who would rather have Trump) is making a fool out of Biden. The U.S. needs to use its leverage to set explicit humanitarian conditions and move Israel to an early cease-fire and peace plan. Even the most pro-Israel Jewish voters (and donors) are fed up.
There is also a deal to be had to end the Ukraine War. The deal is some land in exchange for a cease-fire and NATO guarantees of Ukrainian sovereignty.
Biden will always be an aging leader who is at risk when he is off-script. But at least he can be a better version of himself.
