Susan Walsh/AP Photo
President Joe Biden speaks at the Vote to Live Action Fund’s 2024 Prosperity Summit, in North Las Vegas, Nevada, July 16, 2024.
With Trump and the Republicans demonstrating impressive unity at their convention and a shrewd pick for running mate in J.D. Vance, there is now a race on the Democratic side between an ever-shrinking circle of Biden loyalists and a much larger group of elected Democrats frantic to avert a Trump landslide. Here is the state of play:
In May, the Democratic National Committee, concerned about an Ohio rule that possibly required a nominee to be chosen by August 7 in order to get on the ballot, created a process for a virtual roll call prior to that date. Since then, Ohio has clarified its rules, and parties have until September 1. The DNC, at its May meeting, set this coming Friday as the date for the convention rules committee to finalize the process. The virtual balloting, as our colleague David Dayen has reported, could be as late as August 7 or as early as July 29.
However, Wednesday morning, after some pushback from Democrats resisting the Biden steamroller, DNC rules co-chairs Leah Daughtry and Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz sent a letter to all DNC members on the Friday meeting. They pledged:
We will not be implementing a rushed virtual voting process, though we will begin our important consideration of how a virtual voting process would work.
As Rules Committee Co-Chairs, we have confirmed with the Democratic National Committee and the Democratic National Convention that no virtual voting will begin before August 1.
Even though there is no need for this early roll call process, Biden forces hope to use it to lock in Biden as the nominee well before the Democratic National Convention, thus undermining the growing movement to replace Biden as nominee.
Trump’s success as the martyr-who-didn’t-die cuts both ways. On the one hand, it has increased panic in Democratic ranks. On the other hand, it has placed the movement to dump Biden on a delicate hold, given the need for a decent interval after the attempt on Trump’s life before normal politics resumes.
In the meantime, Biden’s inner circle keeps dwindling. The New York Times reports that it is down to his family and a handful of ultra-loyalists such as Steve Ricchetti and Mike Donilon.
Biden forces hope that the tactic of a virtual roll call certifying Biden as the nominee will short-circuit the growing defections once and for all. But according the Larry Cohen, the former president of the Communications Workers of America (CWA) and longtime leader of progressive forces on the Democratic National Committee (and a parliamentary wizard), that’s a misreading of the rules. “If President Biden stands aside after the roll call, the DNC would just have to establish a new procedure for selecting a nominee,” Cohen told me.
In other words, other than trying to create a misleading psychology of inevitability, the roll call tactic means nothing. If Biden were to stand down, the DNC would have to create a process for replacing him, whether he stepped down before or after the roll call.
My own sense is that the movement to replace Biden will go back into high gear as soon as the Republican National Convention is over. Whether it succeeds is another question. With or without the roll call gambit, Biden forces will continue to try to run out the clock.
The longer this goes on, the more likely it is that the only practical alternative to Biden is Kamala Harris, given the complexities of an open convention. Whether Harris would be notably stronger than Biden is a topic for another day.
