Mike Stewart/AP Photo
People stand in line during the last day of early voting, Saturday, November 2, 2024, in Charlotte, North Carolina.
Barring a landslide for one of the candidates, the official results are not likely to be declared for several days in many of the swing states. This is not because of Trump mischief trying to get his supporters to impede the count (which will also occur). It’s just how things work in very close elections.
The closer the election, the longer the delay. Some states also permit or require recounts if the margin is very tight.
Provisional ballots, late-arriving mail ballots, contested ballots, many overseas ballots, and other special categories are typically not counted election night. In 2020, when Election Day was November 3, Michigan and Wisconsin were not officially called until November 4. Pennsylvania and Nevada were declared on November 7; this gave Biden just enough electoral votes to win, so the election was officially called that Saturday.
North Carolina, with a longer mail-ballot deadline, was not official until November 13. And the final Georgia result, after a hand recount and audit, delayed certification until November 19.
One of the factors that drove Trump even crazier than usual was what election experts call a ‘blue shift.” In several states, Democratic votes took longer to be recorded than Republican votes for a variety of reasons. In the midst of the COVID pandemic, more Democrats voted by mail, which took longer to count. In some states, contested ballots tended to favor Democrats once they were all counted.
In Nevada, the Democratic stronghold of Clark County (Las Vegas) typically takes longer to report than smaller, Republican-leaning counties. In Georgia, which Biden ultimately won by 11,779 votes, or 0.2 percent, Trump held the lead in the counting until three days after the election. This stoked his paranoia that the election had been stolen.
In Pennsylvania, which went for Biden by 80,555 votes, or 1.2 percent, Trump held the lead for 61 hours after the polls closed, because of slower counts of provisional ballots and mail ballots, both of which favored Democrats. This time, the Pennsylvania count is expected to be faster because of various reforms, though there could be more Republican challenges.
Conversely, Arizona in 2020 experienced a “red shift” as all the votes were counted, because early mail ballots were counted first and they tended to favor Democrats. In the end, as the Democrats’ lead dwindled, Biden won by just 10,457 votes, or 0.3 percent.
So despite election night network projections of winners, if the swing states are as close as polls suggest, results are not likely to be official for several days. This will only give Trump and his supporters ammunition to claim that he won and that the election was stolen from him, especially since five of the swing states have Democratic governors, and two others (Nevada and Georgia) have governors who are not MAGA sympathizers.
Though there are widespread reports that pro-Trump vigilantes, egged on by Trump, will try to intimidate poll workers and delay the count and official certification, especially in red counties with MAGA local officials, the Justice Department is in friendly hands this time. Pro-democracy groups and DOJ officials have had nearly four years to prepare for disruptions on Election Day and in the count. My column tomorrow will report, in detail, on what to expect and what protective countermeasures are in place.
With Kamala Harris effectively rallying the women’s vote, and Trump overreaching in his crude efforts to appeal to the grievances of some men, as well as blunders like the Puerto Rico garbage joke, the last few days seem to have produced a slight swing to Harris. Even so, absent an unlikely landslide, most of us will go to bed election night not knowing for sure who won.
