As Goes Georgia

by

The likely victories in Georgia not only vindicate the strategy of deep, long-term organizing and increase the chances that the Biden administration may actually be able to deliver benefits to suffering citizens. They are also a hopeful harbinger for 2022.

Usually, midterm elections are a disaster for the party of an incoming president. In 1994, Clinton’s first midterm, House Democrats lost 54 seats. That was a modern record until Obama’s first midterm in 2010, when his party lost 63.

An exception to this pattern was 1998, when Democrats picked up five House seats. What happened? Basically, Republicans overreached and made fools of themselves when they sought to remove Clinton from office over the Lewinsky mess.

The 2022 midterm could be more like 1998 than 2010 for three big reasons. First, the kind of long-term organizing that produced the Georgia win will be a model for other states. The on-the-ground work that produced big midterm gains for Democrats in 2018, but was suspended due to the pandemic, will likely resume and redouble by this fall.

Second, Biden is likely to catch a wave as he begins administering the vaccine program far more competently than Trump, and as the pandemic subsides. The related economic recovery will also occur on Biden’s watch.

But the most important resemblance to 1998 is the likelihood that Republicans will make vivid fools of themselves again. We’ve had a rollicking preview of that this week, and it will only continue.

By the fall of 2020, the image of the two parties will be of the Biden administration trying to deliver practical help, and a grumpy and fractious Republican Party blocking everything in sight. That plus a ton of Georgia-style organizing could break the midterm jinx.

A second Trump administration will cement a right-wing majority on the Supreme Court for a generation, and put our collective future in the hands of someone who will be virtually unchecked by our institutions. The country has shifted rightward, and the reverberations will ensue for potentially the next few decades. In this climate, a robust independent media ecosystem will be more important than ever. We're committed to bringing you the latest news on how Trump's agenda will actually affect the American people, shining a light on the stories corporate media overlooks and keeping the public informed about how power really works in this country.

Quality journalism is expensive to produce, and we don't have corporate backers to rely on to fund what we do. Everything we do is thanks to our incredible community of readers, who chip in a few dollars at a time to make our work possible. Any amount you give today will help us continue reporting on what matters to our democracy.

You can help power this newsroom by making a one-time donation or by becoming a member today.