Fake Populist Meets Real Populist

Today on TAP: An Ohio Senate race between J.D. Vance and Tim Ryan would test the appeal of cultural grievances versus economic ones.

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J.D. Vance came to prominence at age 31 with his best-selling memoir Hillbilly Elegy. The book was well reviewed, but a lot about it was fake. It posed as an appreciation of his redneck neighbors and kinfolk, but much of Vance’s narrative blamed their travails on their own bad values and behaviors.

Christopher Caldwell, writing in Sunday’s Times, described Vance as having written about Ohio’s migrant hillbillies “without condescension.” Caldwell must have read a different book. The one I read dripped moral superiority.

Having straightened himself out in the military, Vance went on to Ohio State, Yale Law School, and ended up as a senior executive at Peter Thiel’s private equity firm. Billionaire Thiel is now bankrolling Vance’s Senate campaign, where Vance has positioned himself as a born-again Trumper.

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No long ago, Vance was ridiculing Trump, calling him “reprehensible” and “an idiot.” Now, no right-wing fringe position is too lunatic for him.

Vance secured Trump’s endorsement; and thanks to Thiel’s money and the TV ads it pays for, Vance polls narrowly in the lead, in a primary with multiple candidates. His contradictions could still sink him.

If Vance does win, he will do so by having savaged other Republicans in the race, notably former State Treasurer Josh Mandel, who was the front-runner until Vance made off with Trump’s endorsement. Mandel, like Vance, migrated from thoughtful conservative to Trump wannabe. But Vance proved to be the more shameless opportunist. And Trump, the ultimate opportunist, forgave Vance for his earlier attacks. (At a Sunday rally, Trump couldn’t keep the names straight, and referred to his endorsed candidate as J.D. Mandel.)

A contest between Vance and the likely Democrat, Congressman Tim Ryan, will test several questions. How divisive and damaging is Trump in the Republican Party? Would traditional conservatives hold their noses and vote for Vance in the general election? How does the raw appeal of Trumpism to Trump’s base affect swing voters in this quintessential swing state? And most importantly, can genuine economic populism beat fake populism?

This last question is much bigger than the Ohio Senate race. Democrats nationally have a shot at defeating Trumpism and incipient fascism only if they succeed in refocusing debate on the downward slide that is behind so much of the voter anger, and demanding bold measures to reverse it. That will not be accomplished by private equity guys wielding cultural hates.

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