Post–Election Day Purgatory?

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Here’s the latest good news/bad news forecast about whether the election can be called on Election Day. The New York Times has very helpfully explored the degree of mess in seven key swing states.

In Pennsylvania and North Carolina, the Republicans have made it so difficult to count all early and vote-by-mail ballots by Election Day that the odds of a complete tally in those states by election night are vanishingly small no matter how big Biden wins. However, the news is better in other swing states.

Arizona and Michigan will probably have complete counts by November 3 or the morning after. Wisconsin has raised obstacles to voting, but less so to counting. Even Florida, where a lot of Republicans have voted by mail, is not too bad. It may take one more day, but the result will be known in these states by Wednesday.

Bottom line: If we go to the electoral map, Biden can still be projected as the Electoral College winner on Election Day or the day after, even if Pennsylvania and North Carolina are still in prolonged limbo. He can even win without Florida, though winning Florida would be a huge symbolic gain that would intensify the pressure for Trump to concede.

Here are the numbers. If Biden carries the states that Hillary Clinton won in 2016, plus Michigan, Arizona, Wisconsin, and Nebraska’s Second District—all places where he’s leading—then he gets to 270 by November 4, even with these expected long counts in a few states that he could eventually win as well.

That’s not to say, of course, that Trump will concede. He and his allies will mount every conceivable challenge, no matter how far-fetched.

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